AUD gains on better than expected CPI numbers
Daily Forex Market Preview, 26/10/2016
The Australian Bureau of Statistics released the consumer price index data for the third quarter. Official records showed that CPI advanced 1.3% on the year in the third quarter of 2016, exceeding forecasts of 1.1% and gaining from the one percent increase from the previous quarter. On a quarterly basis, inflation rose 0.7% beating forecasts of 0.5% and rising from 0.4% in Q2. Although inflation is still low and below the RBA’s inflation target, the improvement in CPI from a year ago and on a quarterly basis is reason enough to keep the RBA on hold at its meeting next week, which should offer some support to the AUD in the near term.
AUDUSD Daily Analysis
AUDUSD (0.7681): The Australian dollar advanced its gains yesterday and is seen maintaining the bullish momentum after the quarterly inflation report that was released today. However, the 4-hour chart shows the AUDUSD moving in a widening wedge pattern with price closing above the 4-hour resistance zone of 0.7682 - 0.7660. We could expect the price to remain consolidated near the current levels, but the upside momentum is seen weakening. A close below the resistance zone's low of 0.7660 couldsignal near term declines towards 0.7580. Watch for a median line failure plotted within the broadening wedge pattern for early clues as AUDUSD looks to post declines if price fails to hold up above 0.7682.
EURUSD Daily Analysis
EURUSD (1.0888): EURUSD dipped to lows of 1.0850 yesterday and closed modestly bullish and in the process formed a doji outside the bar. A follow through to the upside from here could mark the start of price correction to the upside subject to 1.0900 minor resistance which needs to be cleared. On the 4-hour chart, the Stochastics has moved up strongly, forming a higher high against the lower high in price which indicates a near term sideways price action between 1.0900 and 1.0850. The bias to the upside can be seen strengthening only on a close above 1.0900, while 1.0850 remains in focus but the downside could be limited for now.
EURAUD Daily Analysis
EURAUD (1.4175): EURAUD broke down below the previous low at 1.4200 yesterday, but the 4-hour Stochastics is showing a bullish divergence at the current level. A close above 1.4200 could signal near term upside in prices. The short-term corrective move towards 1.4560 marks the retest of the weekly chart's descending triangle pattern as resistance could be established at 1.4560.