CIBfx Weekly Market Forecast 04.01.2017
The closing week for the market seems to imbibe better performing figures for the year 2017. The European market is slowly gaining while the Asian market is doing its best to strengthen its currency and economic activities. As for the US market, Trump’s presidency would be in for a full scrutiny based on his promised policies. We would see if they would be implemented and how they would affect the US economy and the global market as well. For the week ahead, the US reports, as well as those of other countries, would be released. The January 2nd global market would be closed.
US Reports – The December 2016 figure for ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected to reach 53.7 from the 53.2 figure last November. Trump’s policy on improving infrastructure and more internal policies, which would boost the economy, are seen as positive contributing factors to further strengthen the manufacturing side of the US economy. It is also seen that production is on an increased speed in response to higher demands.
The Federal Reserve minutes of the meeting would be released this coming Wednesday. The said report would include the outlook of the rates this 2017 after the hike last year. Meanwhile, chairwoman Janet Yellen is still firm on her stand that President Donald Trump has nothing to do with the planned interest hike as opposed to what others are complaining about. The question is whether the Federal Reserve would continue its hike on the interest rates or if they would factor in the effect of President Trump’s policy on its fiscal policies.
Unemployment claims continue to stay down and are still below the 300,000-figure, resulting in a 95-week record of below 300k. It is forecasted to hit 262,000 unemployment claims, which still provides a solid explanation for a healthy labor market in the country.
Crude Oil inventories are forecasted to continue their streak for the month of January. The holidays somewhat affected the trading for oil but as soon as January kicked in, the expected gains would be reflected.
Canadian Report – This coming Friday, Canada would release its employment data. The November report has seen 10,700 new jobs, resulting in a 6.8% drop on the country’s unemployment rate. Only the part-time work sector has seen an increase, as compared to the full- time workers, which decreased by 30,000. It is deemed that the number of people searching for jobs declined despite the labor market’s boost on creating more jobs.
European Central Bank’s Meeting Minutes – The report would be released this coming Thursday. It would contain announcements and measures on stabilizing the European economy. Measures are assessed, modified, and implemented to fit the organization’s goal of creating stimulus on the overall economy of the union.
US Dollar – President Donald Trump’s official instatement is seen as boosting the value of the USD. His focus on internal improvements, certain deregulation, and increased spending on infrastructure would benefit the economy. This will further cement a strong value on the American currency. Its exchange between the Japanese Yen is still on a bearish mode, as more declines are expected for the coming week.
What’s in it for 2017?
2017 is seen as an exemplary year for trading, as necessary measures are adopted in order to stabilize each country’s economy. However, market volatility is still high and as an investor, always be cautious and take any preventive measure, which would serve as a fall back, in case the market gets awry and unpredictable. It is a fair suggestion to have an investment on both the fixed- income portfolios and equities. These two are aligned to bring a balanced portfolio when it comes to your desired target and investing goal. You also have to consider the class of portfolio it belongs to, as these different classes provide different results and patterns.