Daily Market News - 22.12.2016 by CentroFX
US pre-Xmas data deluge in focus
No pre-Christmas let up in the schedule Thursday, with a full set of data on the calendar. The European calendar kicks off at 07:00 GMT, with the release of the German construction data and the import/export price index. Italian data follows, with industrial orders data expected at 09:00 GMT, followed by the latest retail sales data at 10:00 GMT. Across the Atlantic, the US calendar gets underway at 13:30 GMT, with the release of a slew of US data, including jobless claims, durable goods and the third read of Q3 GDP. The level of initial jobless claims is expected to rise by 5,000 to 259,000 in the Dec. 17 employment survey week after a 4,000 decline in the previous week. Claims were at a decades-low level of 233,000 in the November 12 employment survey week, so any comparison would be misleading.
Durable goods orders are expected to fall by 5.0% in November after a transportation-led 4.6% gain in October. Boeing reported 13 orders in the month, down sharply from 85 in October, so aircraft orders should give back some of their recent gains. Orders excluding transportation are expected to rise 0.2% in November after a sizable 0.8% gain in October. Third quarter GDP is expected to be unrevised at a 3.2% pace, while the chain price index is expected to be unrevised at a 1.4% gain, with only modest offsetting revision to the components. At 14:00 GMT, the FHFA Home Price Index will be released, followed by leading indicators and personal income data at 15:00 GMT.
The recovery from Monday’s low has stalled ahead of ¥118.43 with bulls needing a close above ¥118.43 to see pressure return to ¥118.66. A close above ¥118.66 remains needed to reconfirm the bullish bias and target 2016 highs (¥121.69). The failure ahead of ¥118.43 leaves the pair looking a little heavy with below ¥116.12 needed to hint at a correction initially targeting ¥114.53-115.11 where the 21-DMA is located. O/B daily studies remain the key concern for bulls.
Spot Gold is last down $0.55/oz at $1,131.10 after seeing a $1,132.65 to $1,130.70 range in Asia with the market continuing to countdown to Christmas, while Tokyo investors have a holiday on Friday in observance of the Emperor's Birthday. The technical team at Commerzbank notes "spot gold has maintained downside pressure and is approaching the 78.6% retracement of the move from 2015 to 2016, this is located at $1,116/17". They say "it is possible that we will see this hold the initial test". Commerzbank thinks "the Elliott wave count is implying that we will see a very shallow rebound only and is indicating that this will be only to $1,175/$1,205, the 23.6% and 38.2% retracement of the move down from November".