CentroFX | Daily Market News - 05.01.2017
USD weaker across the board, data session ahead
It’s a slow European data day Thursday, with little due for release on the Continent or the UK. At 09:30 GMT, the UK December Market/CIPS Services PMI data will be released, with expectations for a strong data to sit alongside the strong manufacturing and construction data. The EMU producer prices data will be published at 10:00 GMT. Across the Atlantic, the US calendar kicks off at 12:00 GMT, with the release of the Challenger Monthly Layoff Intentions. At 13:15 GMT, the ADP Employment Report will cross the wires. The latest US Jobless Claims data will be released at 13:30 GMT. The level of initial jobless claims is expected to fall by 4,000 to 261,000 in the Dec. 31 week after a 10,000 decline in the previous week. The four-week moving average, which fell by 750 to 263,000 in the Dec. 24 week, would rise by only 750 in the coming week as the 258,000 level in the Dec. 3 week drops out of the calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is correct and there are no revisions.
Canadian industrial production data will be published at the same time. The final December Market Services Index is due for release at 14:45 GMT, with the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index set for release at 15:00 GMT. The ISM nonmanufacturing index is expected to decline to a reading of 56.8 in December after a solid gain to 57.2 in November. The flash Market Services estimate fell to 53.4 from 54.6 in November. The US DOE Natural Gas Stocks data will be published at 15:30 GMT, followed by the weekly crude oil stocks data at 16:00 GMT. Late US data will see the publication of the Fed Weekly M2 Money Supply Data.
The lack of follow through on fresh 14+ year lows has resulted in a break above the 21-DMA with this level now initial support. Consolidation above the 21-DMA will increase the risk of a test of the $1.0653-89 resistance region. Bulls look for a close above $1.0689 to end bearish hopes and shift focus to $1.0873-0.0951 where the 100-DMA is noted. Bears need a close below $1.0446 to end correction talk.
US stock index futures are trading slightly weaker in quiet trade as the US Dollar weakens across the board, seeing the resulting Yen strength pressure Japanese stocks slightly. Currently the Mar'17 e-mini S&P futures are trading down 1.25 points at 2,263, the Mar'17 e-mini Nasdaq futures are trading down 4.25 points at 4,929.25, while the Mar'17 e-mini Dow futures are trading 7 down points at 19,849. After some initial choppiness, US stock markets glided gradually higher on Wednesday with Asian markets firmer earlier in the day, led by a massive rally in Japan, while European markets were fairly flat. The Dow Jones advanced 60.40pts (0.3%) to 19,942.16 and the S&P 500 climbed 12.92pts (0.55%) to 2,270.75. The Nasdaq Composite rallied 47.92pts (0.9%) and settled at 5,477.00 while the Russell 2000 stormed 1.65% to 1,387.95, ending just high of its record high, set on 9 December.