Weekly review for 17 to 23 October 2016 by LiteForex
Financial markets are in anticipation of the rate hike in the United States. According CME, futures for the interest showed last Friday that probability of the rate hike in December was at ate level of 69%. At COMEX, closing price of December futures for gold fell last Friday by 0.2%, to $1255.50 per ounce. The index WSJ, has grown by 0.1%, to 88.52 and approached 7-month highs. Strong US data on retail sales released last Friday has increased expectations of the rate hike in the USA. Janet Yellen, the head of the US Fed said last Friday that current situation might force authorities of the US Fed to act quickly and aggressively.
The other representative of the US Fed, Mr. Dudley said that the US Fed would have to raise interest rate in the very near future.
Marco-economic statistics and news of this week are as follows:
12:00 (GMT+3) – Consumer price index of Eurozone for September. Consumer price index is the key indicator of the inflation rate. The lower is the index, the greater probability of the rate cut in the Eurozone and the stronger is the Euro. If the forecast of 0.4% will not be correct, it will cause a surge of volatility in the market.
16:15 – US industrial production in September.
20:35 – Speech by ECB President Mario Draghi. Volatility will increase in the market.
01:45 – consumer price index in Australia for Q3. The forecast is +0.1%.
03:30 – minutes of the last meeting of the RBA, which is usually released two weeks after the rate decision. If the RBA shows hawkish attitude towards inflation forecast, markets will regard it as probability of the rate hike, which is a positive factor for AUD.
11:30 – US inflation data for September (producer price index and consumer price index). Inflation data as well as GDP of the country are the main factors, which affect interest rate decision by the Bank of England. Consumer price index is key indicator of the inflation rate. It will have an impact on the pound and indices of the London stock exchange FTSE100. It is expected that consumer price index will rise by 0.8% after decline by -0.1% in July and the rise by 0.6% in August. The forecast of the rise on annual basis is +1.4%. If the forecast proves to be correct the pound will grow in the market.
15:30 – US inflation indicators for September, including consumer price index.
17:00 – New Zealand’s index for dairy products, which is published after 17:00. Volatility the NZD will increase. The auction of dairy products held in the past two weeks indicated the decline in world prices for dairy products.
According to the Global Dairy Trade, price index for dairy products will be 3.0%. The main item of the New Zealand’ exports is the milk powder. The decline in price will put pressure on the New Zealand dollar.
23:30 – American petroleum Institute (API) will publish report on changes to the US stocks of oil for the last week.
05:00 – important Chinese macro-economic data: retail sales, industrial production for September, GDP in Q3. Chinese economy is the second largest in the world after the USA. Therefore, Chinese macro-economic data will have a significant impact on global financial markets, and on the position of the Yuan and other Asian currencies, USD and Chinese and Asian stock indices. The growth of Chinese economy is slowing down; however it is still strong. GDP of Chine in Q2 was 6.7% on annual basis.
15:30 – US started home constructions in September.
17:00 – interest rate decision by the Bank of Canada's decision and Bank’s comments. Current level of the rate is 0.5%. Volatility may increase.
17:00 – US Department of Energy will issue weekly report on the US stocks of oil and oil products.
21:00 – US Fed “Beige book”.
03:30 – Australian labor market data for September. This most important data may cause a surge of volatility in the Australian dollar.
09:00 – German producer price index for September.
11:30 – British retail sales data for September.
14:45 – Interest rate decision by the ECB. Current core interest rate is at the level of -0.4% (refinancing rate for commercial banks. The ECB has been lowering the rate since 2008 from $4.25% to the current record lows. In addition, the ECB continues QE program in Eurozone. Asset purchase program of the ECB is 80 billion euros (88 billion USD). This policy has not led to the desired improvement of macro-economic indicators, or inflation rate. ECB President Mario Draghi may announce changes to the program, which should be completed in March 2017. Expectations of the new measures by the ECB put pressure on the Euro.
15:30 – press conference of the ECB, and a speech by Mario Draghi. Volatility may increase in the financial markets. Mr. Draghi is famous for the comments, which can change trend in the financial markets. We remember that sometimes his speech changed the rate of Euro by 3-5% in a short time.
11:30 – report on the net borrowing of the British government. Negative index will show that the accounts of Britain are in surplus, which will be a positive factor for the GBP.
20:00 – Baker Hughes, oilfield services company will issue report on the number of active drilling rigs in the USA, This data has a significant impact on the oil prices. Current number of the active drilling rigs is 432.